It was eight weeks ago when the young forward found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery scolded him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained if his displays were an indicator or a cause for Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. As the England international swept in his second to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery discarded his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six games, find themselves just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?
That’s a rather hard question to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the wins have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team registered an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a side who have just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – however right now the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their star man to bail them out with some precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened against United.
His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the upright from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents registered more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival the club will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, will not continue to blasting his shots into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent might become the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder now would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. When Rogers stood in front of the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
